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June 26, 2011 / theslowblitz

Perception of probability

Absolute certainty is distinct from believing that an event has a 100% probability of being true; it just means that all possible objections have subjectively strong counter-points, such that you cannot conceive a reasonable scenario in which the even will turn out to be false.

Meanwhile, ‘probably true’ or ‘probably false’, while meaning nothing in a mathematical sense (as has been mentioned in the book Black Swan), indicates a belief that an event is true or false, but that has not been considered over so throughly such that there is absolute certainty.

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